According to the latest statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association on major excavator manufacturers, 19,270 excavators of various types were sold in February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%. Among them, domestic sales were 11,640 units, a year-on-year increase of 99.4%; exports were 7,630 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. From January to February 2025, a total of 31,782 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%. Among them, domestic sales were 17,045 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.4%; exports were 14,737 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.37%.

As the "barometer" of the construction machinery industry, whether it is the 99.4% year-on-year increase in domestic sales of excavators in February or the 51.4% year-on-year increase in domestic sales from January to February, it is enough to double the confidence of the industry. "Such a high growth rate is the result of multiple factors, including a low base during the Spring Festival in 2024, accelerated infrastructure investment, equipment renewal policy stimulus, downstream start-up recovery and policy support." For this reason, Xie Jianbin, an analyst at Donghai Securities, made a prediction: domestic sales of excavators have increased significantly, and the industry recovery trend for the whole year may be determined.

Continuous policy increases to boost domestic demand
Since September 2024, a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies have been introduced intensively. The central bank announced a series of policies to reduce the reserve requirement ratio, interest rates and existing mortgage rates, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity; the Ministry of Finance has stepped up its support for local governments to resolve government debt risks, increased debt quotas on a large scale, and superimposed the use of local government special bonds, special funds, tax policies and other tools to support and promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.

The 2025 government work report made it clear that it plans to arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, an increase of 500 billion yuan over the previous year. We will step up efforts to implement the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses to fully release the potential of rigid and improved housing demand. We will further expand the scope and lower the threshold, and deeply implement major technological transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and large-scale equipment renewal projects.

The continued blood supply to infrastructure and real estate from both the policy and fiscal sides will drive the demand for earthmoving machinery to varying degrees, effectively stimulating the stabilization of real estate infrastructure. Xie Jianbin said that according to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic infrastructure fixed investment continued to increase in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.19%. Among them, fixed investment in the mining industry and water conservancy management industry increased by 10.5% and 41.7% year-on-year, which continued to drive downstream demand. At the same time, the life of excavators is about 8 years, and the previous wave of sales peak was from 2019 to 2022. The government continues to promote the implementation of large-scale subsidies for the elimination of old equipment, stimulating the early release of downstream renewal demand, and a number of key tasks actively help the domestic construction machinery industry demand to recover.

According to the "CCTV Finance Excavator Index" released on March 17, in February this year, the national construction machinery start-up rate was 35.10%, and the start-up rates in Anhui, Hubei, Henan, Zhejiang, Fujian, Chongqing, and Jiangxi exceeded 50%. Although February was during the Spring Festival holiday, nearly half of the equipment in the top 10 provinces still worked overtime, and infrastructure construction showed a prosperous scene.

Data released by Komatsu showed that from January to February 2025, its domestic operating hours totaled 122.8 hours, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, of which 56.8 hours were operated in February alone, a year-on-year increase of 100.79%. "Medium and large excavators are the main support for Komatsu's domestic market share. The year-on-year increase in the number of operating hours reflects the recovery of the market sentiment of medium and large excavators, which is also verified by the continued recovery of sales of medium and large excavators in my country since January and February." Zhou Ershuang, a researcher at Soochow Securities, told reporters that from January to February, domestic sales of small, medium and large excavators increased by 58%, 51% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, which is a significant improvement compared with the 8% decline in domestic sales of medium and large excavators in 2024.

Relevant institutions said that the recovery in demand for medium and large excavators is mainly due to the improvement of downstream funds and the renewal of stock equipment. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the funding rate of real estate and infrastructure projects has increased, promoting the resumption of work on stock projects and the start of new projects. In addition, the equipment of the last round of equipment procurement cycle (2015-2023) has entered a concentrated replacement period, and the stable demand in mines has further supported the sales growth of medium and large excavators.

The optimization of industry structure has also injected long-term momentum into the recovery. "Unlike the demand for excavators in the previous cycle, which was accompanied by real estate and infrastructure, more application scenarios for excavators in this cycle have been opened up, such as high-standard farmland construction, municipal engineering, and water conservancy investment corresponding to small excavators. On the one hand, it has benefited from policy support, and on the other hand, it has also been affected by the decreasing rural labor force." Zhou Ershuang believes.

Non-excavation performance is excellent and the foundation for recovery is solid
Not only has the sales of excavators increased, but the performance of non-excavation machinery is also outstanding. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 8,730 loaders of various types were sold in February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%. Among them, domestic sales were 4,505 units, a year-on-year increase of 63%. From January to February 2025, a total of 16,650 loaders of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. Among them, domestic sales were 8,211 units, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%.

In February 2025, the domestic sales of graders, rollers, and pavers increased by 62.3%, 54.8%, and 51.1% year-on-year, respectively, which was a significant recovery compared to 2024. In 2024, the sales of the three types of models increased by 17.6%, -14.4%, and -19.0% year-on-year, respectively.

"According to our grassroots survey, products with high correlation with real estate, such as cranes and concrete, have also rebounded significantly in February. The main reason may be that the demand for wind power, another major downstream, is supported, and the industry sales have fallen to a low level." Zhou Ershuang analyzed that the impact of the non-excavation recovery on domestic OEMs in 2025 is expected to change from a profit drag to a positive contribution, and the profit performance of OEMs is expected to exceed expectations.

In terms of the performance of the operating rate, the "CCTV Finance Excavator Index" shows that in February this year, the average operating rate of hoisting equipment nationwide was 56.63%, far exceeding other major types of equipment. Lifting equipment is often used in large-scale equipment installation, structural lifting and other links. Its high start-up rate indicates that more infrastructure projects entered the late stage of construction in February, focusing on equipment commissioning, main structure capping and other finishing work.

At the same time, in February 2025, the electric loader market hit a record high with a monthly sales volume of 1,327 units, a year-on-year increase of 345%. From January to February, the sales volume of electric loaders reached 2,413 units, and the penetration rate increased to 14.49%, a leapfrog growth compared with 2.1% in the same period of 2024. With its low cost of use and environmental advantages, electric loaders are gradually popularized in ports, mines and other scenes.

The core driving force behind the electric loader market's leap from a "marginal" product to a "mainstream" product is reflected in two aspects. First, the policy side continues to increase its support for new energy equipment. Many places have forced the industry to transform and drive procurement demand through measures such as priority procurement of new energy equipment and emission restrictions. Secondly, it comes from the market's recognition of its economic efficiency. According to data from the Gaogong Industry Research Institute of Lithium Battery, taking a 5-ton product as an example, compared with a fuel loader, the 5-year life cycle cost of an electric loader can save more than one million yuan, significantly increasing customers' willingness to purchase.

"As the downstream application areas of electric loaders gradually expand, the economic efficiency is recognized by the market, and with the support of government policies, the electrification trend of loaders is obvious." Xie Jianbin also pointed out that as the domestic equipment renewal policy continues to release demand potential, downstream infrastructure continues to grow, the industry competition pattern may be gradually optimized, product price increases will achieve healthy competition, optimize corporate profits, and guide the healthy development of the industry.

The reporter learned that under the consensus of the domestic market recovery, some host manufacturers have chosen to raise product prices. Liugong Yunnan Regional Agent Yunnan Huiyou Liugong Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. issued a notice stating that it has decided to adjust the prices of some excavator products from February 13, 2025. Among them, excavators below 20 tons will be increased by 10,000 yuan/unit, excavators from 20 to 50 tons will be increased by 20,000 yuan/unit, and excavators above 50 tons will be increased by 30,000 yuan/unit.

Steady export growth is expected to resonate at home and abroad
At the beginning of the new year of 2025, many engineering machinery companies have been gearing up and sounding the "assembly call" to go overseas. Zoomlion's engineering cranes signed overseas orders of more than 800 million yuan, and its mining machinery overseas orders reached 600 million yuan. 100 Zoomlion ZL105 rice harvesters were exported to overseas markets; XCMG's world's largest tonnage pure electric loader XC9108-EV and the hot-selling XC968-EV set off for a mining area in Southeast Asia; 200 dump trucks of Sany Engineering Vehicles were completed and exported to Indonesia; Lovol LT70 mining trucks set off from Qingdao Port to help Indonesian customers conquer mines, and Lovol FR700F mining excavators were delivered in batches to Mali, Africa...

Statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association show that the export volume of excavators in February 2025 was 7,630 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%; the export volume of loaders was 4,225 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. From January to February, the cumulative export growth rates of excavators and loaders were 7.37% and 8.33% respectively, and the export performance continued to pick up. "We judge that it is mainly due to the high demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America, and the gradual narrowing of the decline in the European and American markets. In 2025, the industry is expected to usher in domestic and foreign resonance." Zhou Ershuang said.

Pacific Securities also stated in a research report that the recovery trend of excavators will continue under the resonance of domestic and foreign demand. In terms of overseas markets, the positive export in the second half of last year was mainly due to the low base and the recovery of demand in Southeast Asia. Starting this year, we can expect demand in Europe and the United States to improve. The external demand environment is expected to be better than last year. In addition, as domestic brands further deepen their presence in various regional markets, the overseas share of domestic brands will continue to increase, and exports are expected to achieve better performance.

XCMG said in an institutional survey a few days ago that the company believes that the industry's domestic sales have shown signs of recovery, especially earthwork machinery has achieved positive growth for many consecutive months. "The rapid development of new energy and greening has opened up new growth space for construction machinery. Driven by the addition of special treasury bonds and long-term treasury bond projects and the demand for equipment renewal, the domestic industry will gradually usher in an upward cycle. At the same time, we expect the overseas market to continue to maintain a good trend, and export revenue will still maintain a good growth." XCMG said that the overseas market is huge, and after decades of accumulation, Chinese companies have the ability to expand overseas. In the future, overseas will also be a broad world for all Chinese brands to focus on.

From the explosive growth of domestic sales of excavators in February 2025, to the continuous expansion of non-excavation machinery application scenarios, to the resonance of domestic and foreign markets, looking forward to the whole year, both domestic sales and exports have the potential to exceed expectations. In Zhou Ershuang's view, the high growth rate of water conservancy investment supports small excavators, the stabilization of real estate and the development of infrastructure support medium excavators, and the stable demand for mines supports the sales of large excavators. Against the background of multiple positive factors and stock renewal and replacement, the recovery of the construction machinery industry is worth looking forward to.